Did Youth Vote Accurately Predict Montana Election?

Now that the votes have been cast and counted, and the cheers and tears subsided, let's see how accurate the school kids were in comparison to the actual outcomes from the Secretary of State's office.  While they got the results mostly correct, the margins vary.

President: Kids said Trump with nearly 70% of vote.  He actually got 58% of Montana's vote.  The margin is much narrower against Kamala Harris with 38%.  Trump still confidently took the state.

Senate: Students said Sheehy with only 51% of their vote.  He received 53% of actual vote, so the kids were quite accurate.

Representatives: Youths elected Zinke with nearly 60%.  Of the registered adults, he received 52%.  Young voters gave Troy Downing nearly 72%; close, he got 66%.

Governor: Kids were right; keep calling Greg the Governor.  They gave him 63%.  Actual Montana voters gave Mr. Gianforte 59%.

Judges: Students said Cory Swanson would win with 55.5%.  Nearly spot on with the adults' 54%.

Minors prefer a woman as judge a little more than adults.  Katherine Bidegaray received over 62% of the Youth Vote.  Adults gave her 54%, but that is still enough for her to win.

the Initiatives: the Youth Vote said that all three constitutional initiatives: 126, 127 and 128 would be accepted.  Adults said otherwise on two of them.  On CI-126, kids gave it a 1,000-vote approval majority; voters narrowly rejected it by only 2%, 51-49.

Students approved CI-127 by only a 400-vote margin.  Adults soundly defeated it by 22%, 61% No, 39% Yes.

Youth and Adults agreed on CI-128 approval by a clear majority.  Very comparable.  Voters approved 58% over 42% No.

In Conclusion

The Montana Youth Vote still stands as a good indicator of election results.  It may be that kids are agreeing with their parents' views on candidates or like the parents they favor one candidate over the other based on their own impressions.  On initiatives, students may just look at the proposal as written and either approve or not, while adults see into the implications and read more into the measure.

Hee hee, now watch, campaign consultants may hold focus groups in elementary school classrooms, or candidates may hire teenagers as consultants.

Original Post, November 3rd

This will either really relieve your worry, or really scare you.

Depending on your point of view.

Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen revealed the outcome of the 2024 Montana Youth Vote last Friday.  This mock election is more than a fun civics exercise; school students have accurately foretold the results of past Montana elections.  This means that as the kids have voted, so will the adults.

Children from kindergarten through senior high participated, with older students voting on the Supreme Court and the constitutional initiatives on top of the races.

So what did the Youth Vote determine?

Donald Trump Returns to the Presidency!

Of the total 4,286 votes across K-12, Trump received 2,995 or 69.87%.  Democrat Kamala Harris received 858 or 20%.  Trump dominated the Montana youth vote by practically 3.5 to 1.  Robert F. Kennedy got 305 votes or just over 7%, despite bowing out of the race.

Tim Sheehy Becomes Senator!

Maybe it's being a Navy SEAL.  Maybe it's the Trump endorsement.  Certainly can't be all the ads (ugh).  The students have spoken, and Republican Sheehy received 2,187 of the 4,286 cast votes for a narrow majority of 51%.  Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester got 1,839 or just under 43%.

Republicans Take Both Seats in the House

In the 1st Congressional district, Ryan Zinke will continue speaking for Montana in the House.  He received 2,567 of the K-12 votes or just under 60%, while Monica Tranel received 1,315 or just over 30.5%.  Dennis Hayes siphoned off 404 votes for nearly 9.5%.

In the 2nd district, Troy Downing took the majority with 3,084 votes over John Driscoll's 1,202, a victory for the Trump-backed Republican 71.95% over 28%.

Keep Calling Gianforte Governor

The incumbent Republican won't have to clean out his desk and office.  Govenor Greg won the Youth Vote with 2,699 or 63%.  Democrat challenger Ryan Busse received 825 or just over 19%.  In a surprise, Libertarian Kaiser Leib got 762 votes or 17.77%, and he beat Busse with the K-6 electorate 156 to 133.

the Judge Races

According to the grade 7-12 Youth Vote, Cory Swanson wins the Montana Supreme Court Chief Justice with 2,036 of the 3,663 ballots (55.5%) over Jeremiah Lynch (44.4%).

Students just prefer a woman on the Court.  Katherine Bidegaray received over 200 more votes than Swanson, and she trounces Dan Wilson 62.3% to 37.67%.

All Three MT Constitutional Initiatives Are Accepted!!

A majority of older students grade 7 through 12 have agreed to amend the Montana Constitution.

CI-126 would require listing all the candidates for each race on the ballot, regardless of political party, and the top 4 move on to the general election.  Students approve this measure 2,323 to 1,340.

CI-127 requires a general election victory for an office by a majority of the vote, from the four candidates who survive the primary.  In the event a majority is not reached, then the Legislature will have mechanisms in place to determine a victor.  Students passed this initiative 2,033 to 1,630,

CI-128 would secure the right to decisions regarding "one's own pregnancy, including the right to abortion."  The government may only regulate abortion care after fetal viability, and is prohibited from prosecuting or penalizing the expecting woman nor anyone assisting her in carrying out her decisions.  Students accepted this amendment 2,189 to 1,474.

Will the kids get it right in 2024?

I'll answer that after the election is finalized.  Please stay tuned.